The quote said four dollars. It felt like a win. Then the mailer, the freight, Amazon’s fees, a few returns, and a small ad test ate the price a shopper was willing to pay. The product was never a four-dollar product. I had just refused to write the rest of the bill.
The factory line is the easy number
Suppliers lead with the unit price because that is the number you asked for. It is also the smallest honest number on the path to a buyable listing. I build the rest of the sheet before I ask anyone for a quote. Then their price is something I can accept or refuse, instead of a surprise I try to negotiate my way out of.
Example only. Your numbers will be different.
Three dollars left is not a promise of profit. It is what remains before your time, a second sample, a duty bill you forgot, or a freight quote that comes in higher. If the leftover is already thin, the idea is expensive. Raising the Amazon price only works when shoppers already pay that higher price for something like yours.
The lines people leave blank
Blank feels like zero. It is not zero. It is a cost you have not met yet. I would rather see an ugly estimate than a clean sheet with holes.
Product and the shopper’s box
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes
- What I have seen when it is missing
- A “simple” sleeve blows the math
Mold or tool
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes, on the first order
- What I have seen when it is missing
- People think every reorder is this cheap
Samples and sample shipping
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes
- What I have seen when it is missing
- The second sample has no budget
Freight to the US and into Amazon
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes
- What I have seen when it is missing
- Goods sit because the boat is unpaid
Amazon selling and shipping fees
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes
- What I have seen when it is missing
- A bigger size tier wipes the leftover
Returns
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes, as an allowance
- What I have seen when it is missing
- The plan assumed none come back
A small ad test
- Put it on the sheet?
- Yes
- What I have seen when it is missing
- Learning spend gets called a surprise
| Cost | Put it on the sheet? | What I have seen when it is missing |
|---|---|---|
| Product and the shopper’s box | Yes | A “simple” sleeve blows the math |
| Mold or tool | Yes, on the first order | People think every reorder is this cheap |
| Samples and sample shipping | Yes | The second sample has no budget |
| Freight to the US and into Amazon | Yes | Goods sit because the boat is unpaid |
| Amazon selling and shipping fees | Yes | A bigger size tier wipes the leftover |
| Returns | Yes, as an allowance | The plan assumed none come back |
| A small ad test | Yes | Learning spend gets called a surprise |
Start from the price on the shelf
Look at the price band you wrote down from real listings. That is the price a shopper already accepts, unless your product is visibly different. Subtract the lines above. What remains has to survive a worse freight bill and still leave enough to reorder.
- 1Use the price people payNot the price you wish the market would bear.
- 2Subtract every lineA blank stays blank. Do not quietly turn it into zero.
- 3Look at what is leftIf it only works when every guess is perfect, stop.
I also write the packed length, width, height, and weight, then check Amazon’s fee for that size. A product that crosses into the next size tier can lose more in fees than you saved by squeezing the factory. Do this again if you add a bundle. Bundles feel like value. They are also a new carton.
One version first
Three sizes can mean three molds, three cartons, and three piles of inventory that do not sell at the same speed. I cost the single version I would launch first. The family of products can wait until that one survives the sheet.
If the idea only works when freight is cheap, returns are rare, and the factory hits the hopeful price, leave it in the notebook. That is a finished decision, not a failed one.
This is the same path we run in the Amazon Selling System. You approve the product, the factory, and the launch. We do the work.